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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Sep 24 (KCc2)

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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

229 // 231 // 233 // 237 ? Soon.
New Volcafe report about 24/25 Vietnam crop gives only 24m bags and very low carry over stocks. USDA about Brazil with no records. Let’s see how market will digest this info :)
The USDA's global balance sheet is complete.
Brazil 69.9 million bags. ShortDude, do you advise selling the other farm?
If, to the contrary, all rumors about Brazil and other origins are bluff and conspiracy, 40/42mb of A in 25/26 is what should be expected on flat production in other origins as temps/dry spells have been/still are hard facts, which facts science apply in well defined and proven way. In this case :) :) :) the situation will stay very fragile and focus will be on 26/27 crop. Science based, this scenario physically seems to be impossible but paper wise - why not ? It will be seen soon.
If A quality issues will be proven big, ICE A will get more motivated as that low quality A will go other channels and will reduce ICE inflow. ICE A is catching up with R now, charts wise it is actually unique, A at some point should catch up, that points to 300 - 340 segment for A... Stoch on weekly in March produced buy signal at rare level, secondary signal was produced in May at same level, it is a rare occurrence indeed and the signal remains active. Stoch on monthly is trying to produce a buy signal and ... to move into overbought territory - main spikes happen while stoch is in that territory, 100 - 150 points, that would bring KC to its logical 340 level or so... I may be dead wrong :), but in my view personal view, coffee stars :) are thinking to align... :) :) :)
in my very very personal view ***** :)
Short Dude. If they would show productive trees as always, we could compare quantity of productive trees vs 18/19 and 20/21 and also average yield per tree - we would see if 24/25 69.9mb crop is estimated on smaller, same or bigger quantity of productive trees vs 18/18 and 20/21. Within normal rate of mistake A = 48.2mb is the same as 49.7mb as it was in both 18/19 and 20/21 MY. (R was 16.8mb in 18/18 and 20.2mb in 20/21, 20.2 and 21.7 also are within same rate of mistake of 10%.) My point and you may laugh or you may not, but: 20/21 record A+R was 49.7+20.2=69.9mb, 24/25 was projected 69.9mb. USDA could show 70.9mb for example, but it didn't... :) for some reason... Now, 19/20 OFF for A was shown by USDA as 42mb no issues were detected, normal ON-OFF transition assuming record 18/19), but 21/22 was shown as 36.4mb.
The one may chose for himself which number he likes more or in between :) for 25/26 OFF A crop, but simple approach suggests that analogy with 21/22 would be more correct as real problems affected A in 23/24. Now look at global production vs consumption in a simple manner: 25/26 consumption will add another 3mb but production only on OFF Brazil should be lower for 6 - 10mb (between 36 and 42mb). Besides, if heat issue was applicable to mighty Brazil what's gonna happen to CA and M combined, producing about 20mb ? What's about Vietnam ? Just get flat numbers for global R , 42mb A Brazil :), -5 - 10% remaining A (combined) - what you'll see ? But if OFF Brazil A will be 38mb ? :) And do not forget: as problems have been admitted, the reduction for 23/24 may follow later :). It will be reflected by the export for sure, if problem(s) will be of a scale... And pay close attention to pest/fungus indexes/news. :)
Not agitating or trying to influence anybody to get long, short or whatever - just my very personal point view :) :) :). Tomorrow will be interesting day indeed.
Brazilian coffee has about 50% market share in China currently. :)
Judy Ganes: Tally time on the USDA FAS attache coffee reports: based on all released data, 2024/25 world coffee output could reach a new record of 176.878 million bags surpassing 2020/21 record of 176.584 million and 7.371 million above last season, if unreported countries are unchanged.
$360 otw
Total production: 69.9mb, R - 21.7mb, A - 48.2mb. Thus: 1) A record was not repeated; 2) R problems were admitted; 3) 2020 A+R record was not repeated.
4) Espírito Santo: The largest conilon coffee producing state in Brazil experienced drought and high temperatures between October and December 2023, which affected the productive potential of the beans. Producers consulted by Post reported concerns about the average productivity and quality of the fruits to be harvested, although the harvest is still in its early stages. However, the arrival of rains at the beginning of 2024 appears to have been sufficient to guarantee the development of the crops and should result in a larger harvest than in 2023, though far from the initial estimate of the season. The shortage of labor has contributed to the acceleration of mechanization in the fields. Furthermore, the state has been focusing on the sustainability of the Espírito Santo coffee chain, with an eye on increasing conilon exports to the world. The state’s Institute of Research, Technical Assistance and Rural Extension (INCAPER) estimates that Espirito Santo should produce 11 million bags of conilon coffee. About 75 percent of the conilon crops is in the North of the state, with harvesting starting in May and following until August.
Point 3) was about MG ***
High temperatures and their effect was admitted. :)
More rumors before USDA :), Noticias Agr: According to Marcus Magalhães, despite prices reaching historic values, the moment is not that favorable for the Brazilian producer. The conilon harvest is in full swing and the state of Espírito Santo is experiencing a moment of frustration in production. "The market is very volatile and the producer is very frustrated with the coffee dryer. The harvest seen visually is not being confirmed, in addition to the fall of fruits in the fields", he states. According to the analyst, there are producers who expected a harvest of approximately 120 bags per hectare, but are expected to harvest between 50 and 60. At this moment, the sector is betting on a drop of between 15 and 20% in conilon crops in Espírito Santo.
More conspiracy, only today :), GloboRural: Largest roaster in Indonesia will buy conilon coffee from Brazil The company Kopi Kita will be the first to introduce the Brazilian variety of grain in the Asian country.
why ih gas pkenty coffee available there? I think that exportation from Brasil is like shooting your own foot, we can import coffee, why we can export For the countries with problem?
Simple take on Kopi Kita would be: unlikely they would start it not being concerned about not just one but several MY :).
Great . Optimist.
I woukd lije to hear about USDA strange report about Vietnam, so inconsistency, the sane time reports tgat coffee producer are migrating for other cultures as Durião and other because it is much more profitabe and also about tge clinate problems and the same the time says that will ve a lot of coffe to export but tgey will need import because pf the growing intrbsl comsuption
i got it,
Bruno, things may have been better in the Cerrado. I know many producers in the South of Minas Gerais who are having to replace the sieve screens on their machines with smaller ones.
here it is happnening too, my microregion is a exception
guys I have a question .. Do have someone from this forum the knowledge or a proven information who are the biggest and most influenced funds who control this market ? because I didn't find any proof source who big and strong are behind the coffee scene ? I mean not producers but speculators money management funds who are price dictators . thanks in advance
USDA report on Brazil comes out today at 3pm US ET.
Let's get ready for the next big numbers!
yes
Short Dude. Interesting scenario. Previously, Vietnam officials have been talking about roughly 25.5mb - consider it 26mb, it brings it back to 11/12MY and implies R of 25mb or so. Complaints about ES drop are not stopping and some farmers are talking real big numbers for their farms, besides stating quality of the beans, including breaking in the dryer, etc. It is not possible to get clear now but if it will be more true than false :), we should start seeing export reflecting the facts like Brazilian post 23/24 harvest export started reflecting a good crop and Vietnam issues.
Recently from Cooxupe: Cooxupé sees an increase in Brazil's coffee harvest in 2025, newly harvested small beans in 2024. 25/26 is OFF crop for A, Brazil. If this crop is amazing, next should be smaller, at least a bit... What the point Cooxupe is making here ? :)
Conab, example, A: 2018/19 ON - 47.5mb, 2019/20 OFF - 34.3mb, 2020/21 ON - 48.7mb. Drought has started in 2020 and continued into 2021, confirmed by NASA :), etc. CONAB's numbers for 2021/22 OFF, A: Jan - 33.3mb, May - 33.6mb, Sep - 30.7mb (!), Dec - 31.4mb (final). Between May and Dec projection - reduction of 2,2mb or 6.5%. This reduction could be attributed to drought, unlikely anything else... Now, Conab 2022/23 ON, Jan - 38.78mb, May - 35.7mb, Sep - 32.4mb, Dec - 32.7mb, vs Would Be Good crop of 48.7mb it is 16mb reduction, out of which something was frost and something was drought. (It is good to remember that most evaluation re frost have been about 10% at the time :)) 2022/23 numbers show that Conab initial reduction on multiple frost and severe drought vs previous ON crop was 10mb, additional 6mb were added post harvest, in Sep. 2021 numbers also show very clear that Conab increased A in May vs Jan, but then dropped post harvest ! We're not there yet to know the truth :).
Viriato, So what is written remains valid, the rest becomes speculation
monthly inv hns completed, weekly looks as a local reversal, watching mode, not selling btw
In major grower Vietnam, the agricultural ministry says this season's output will fall 20 percent from the previous year, sending it to a four-year low. Clearly they do not have compatible narration with UDSA ;)
No, as you said, ministry operates previous year data for comparison. You see, the confusion is continuing :). Those, that questioned USDA raise for 22/23 :) based on offered explanation, now got confused even more and as the result, most likely will consider final numbers being in between what means lower than USDA projected. If at some point export will start reflecting it - even more so... Agriministry (in theory:)), like CONAB have to protect both sides of the industry so, unlikely they would threaten :) the market not being kinda :) sure that Vietnam will sell its coffee for current prices.
Look at Brazilian amazing post harvest 23/24 export and look at ECF stocks (include ICE EU stocks) vs 2023, 2022, etc - you'll see that AMAZING export did not bring ECF stocks to where they were... Stocks to use ratio is very low indeed... What it says in a simple form ? It says that situation stays fragile still. Why amazing export was not able to build up the stocks ? There could be various reasons as other exports volume (Vietnam, Indonesia, etc), good consumption, etc... The volume of Brazilian export at current prices says very clear that importers do not hesitate to buy coffee :) whichever factors affects their comfort while doing this :) :) :). The facts that Vietnam and Indonesia started buying Brazilian coffee for real are very telling as that China became more active and somethings point to higher growth in China, etc...
Abecafe (El Salvador) reported that for April 15th the crop was 14.8% below vs April 15th 2023. CA producers suffered similar issues...
how low will it go?
Maja again confirmed to be ideal top alert indicator. ;)
Did you change your mind, Dude ? Based on your comment this morning, including for me to sell my farm and come in sold, you should join in.
Do you think Brazil's big exports are possible not because of a good harvest but because of the use of stocks? Not long ago, everyone was convincing farmers that the harvest of 24-25 would be excellent. It was prudent to sell off any inventory. Judy, among others, advised that. In addition, other producers had poor harvests. Brazil saves the world. If that was the case then Brazil enters 24-25 with very low stocks and has to save the world again. No. I have not changed my mind. I think the weather has taken a toll on yields and stocks are low.
Short Dude. You have to look at Maja as at the person, who knows the subject well from field perspective and has a lot of contacts which are based on true friendship. So, her sources may deliver her a bit overstated (on emotional basis) information but never a lie. A specially, I would not doubt her info re M and CA. Which has confirmation produced by weather stations. Also, the situation is unique in a way that never before just high temps but not drought have been a factor. Many W-guys say that what's going on now is once in 300 years, etc. So, nobody has practical knowledge besides the researchers and some studies have been conducted in the lab but not in Alfenas or Patroncinio, etc. For Brazil 23/24 initial stocks 4.7mb + 66.3mb crop makes 71mb, minus 47 export and 23 domestic leaves 1mb stocks. Two years ago USDA considered stocks in Brazil roughly 500kb :), so numbers wise it is all good. Many, including agronomists and farmers were sure the crop will be amazing but weather took its toll. Weather was documented and admitted by many. Yes, result is unknown because there was no precedent within last 300 years :), but it doesn't negate the fact that it's gonna be NO Result. It will. It will take time to admit it and USDA/CONAB do not want panic. If all is perfect, we should start seeing significant increase in ECF stocks (they include ICE). What we seen till now on amazing Brazil export - is nothing absolutely. Dust will settle closer to the middle of the harvest. Science usually doesn't lie.
Remember today is end of week and end of month. Take it easy ;)
does anyone have the link to the USDA report?
Or just write (usda coffee report)
Next release June 20
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/coffee.pdf
Don’t fight the USDA and CONAB ;)
Absolutely and never ! (Learnt hard way long time ago :)). I would risk to say that report did not provide hope or optimism - rather it technically saved market from a squeeze that could happen otherwise :). What means, unless USDA will show big R in Brazil, that problem remains unresolved and Brazil is only hope... We may see an interesting shift: if MG will start facing quality issues with A of a scale, it may start substituting R, decrease A offer and A may catch up with R - normalize ratio a bit :). At least, this is what charts kinda suggest :) (to me). :)
If problems in Vietnam are real or not - we'll know it very soon.
Short Dude. It is also important that real catalyst is gonna be weather (weather related pests, fungus, etc) not USDA possible reductions if to talk about 5 - 6 levels. :) :) :) And stop-loss is the best sleeping pill !!! :)
To close the topic: The climate conditions affects directly the maturation period of coffee plantations affecting yield and beverage quality. The quality of coffee beverages is highly correlated with the length of fruit maturation, which is strongly influenced by meteorological elements. ****** This from the study maid in 2018 on modern (at the time :)) cultivars by Brazilian researchers. ******* And a bit more: The complete phenological cycle of coffee tree takes 2 years and is composed of vegetative (first phenological year) and reproductive (second phenological year) phases, six in totality (Camargo and Camargo, 2001).
To clarify a bit more as Vietnam is about R: R --- 22/23 = 27.3mb, 23/24 = 28mb, 24/25* = 27.85mb. Vietnam had R production of roughly 28mb in 2017 :). Only twice within last 10 years Vietnam produced 30mb of R: in 19/20 and 21/22, all other years have been roughly 28mb. May be all will get changed in a couple of years :), but for now 24/25 is projected to be below 2017 :)...
If USDA would keep its previous numbers re 22/23 and 23/24 , R production would be at 10 years minimum :).
From 14/15 to 24/25 R production in Brazil grew roughly from 12mb to 24mb***.
buy the dipp :D
pulling the rug
Down to 190
Viriato, first reaction shows that 29mln is not enough or market do not believe in USDA anymore ;)
MGom. 47mb +23mb domestic = 70mb vs 4.7mb beginning stocks + 66.3mb production = 1mb ending stocks :). Unless USDA will raise 22/23 ending stocks or will increase production for 23/24, Brazil will have 1mb ending paper :) stocks for 23/24 :). I'm consistent with my view :) :) :). You're 100% right about how it was/is/will be but we have to differ adjustment based on some data gathering/evaluation and the one that is done just to make up the numbers. USDA didn't hesitate to show ending stocks of 540kb for 21/22 MY. Being USDA I would increase production for 2mb :) :) :) - in relation to 66mb projected earlier it's a tiny 3%. :)
If current GSM cycle will continue in a traditional way, next stage is gonna be cooling and it should start practically tomorrow :), as recent temp anomalies point to a cyclical peak in heat waves (solar peak 25 is in the making), etc. Unlike NH (US and EU), there is almost zero data about that period (1645-1715), covering Brazil. But some researches have been done (trees, rocks, caves, etc) and their results point that average temp in Brazil was also lower during that time. So, it can be reasonably expected that more or less the same will happen now and it will bring some relief to SH coffee producers. But at the same time it will bring new challenges related with rains, pests, fungus, etc as weather pattern most likely will be changed... In relation to MG and SP it may bring more pronounced frosts and droughts, besides frost area may get a bit wider than currently and temps a bit lower and for a bit longer. Strong La Ninas will have more significant effect.
100%, Viriato, the report is there, contesting it may be laudable, but the objections need to be publicized to the same extent as the USDA reports, a difficult task. Just like the Funds theory, if you can't go against them, it's best to join them, better for right trade
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