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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Sep 24 (KCc2)

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225.35 +4.10    +1.85%
13:29:00 - Delayed Data. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
  • Prev. Close: 225.35
  • Open: 219.95
  • Day's Range: 219.80 - 228.05
US Coffee C 225.35 +4.10 +1.85%

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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 1 hour ago
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Total production: 69.9mb, R - 21.7mb, A - 48.2mb. Thus: 1) A record was not repeated; 2) R problems were admitted; 3) 2020 A+R record was not repeated.
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Josin Céntimos
Josin Céntimos 1 hour ago
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So , the ticker seems to continue trip upwards if the production / harvest is less for growing demand? it's difficult to measure last.
Josin Céntimos
Josin Céntimos 1 hour ago
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New in this ticker and I see is volatile like a gas.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 1 hour ago
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In current circumstances and on a very personal basis :), I would not call this report bearish at all :). On OFF - ON cycles basis or considering all cycles being ON now and forever :) - no difference... :)
Josin Céntimos
Josin Céntimos 55 minutes ago
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Viriato Magalhaes It's like my battery car Off ON.
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 28 minutes ago
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Viriato, tell me how the heck Brazil would have a record production, better than in 20/21, when the current year's flowering was during hot weather up to 40C, then during the year it was record hot and drier than usual. More trees or better species were supposed to produce this record, I don't understand!
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago
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More rumors before USDA :), Noticias Agr: According to Marcus Magalhães, despite prices reaching historic values, the moment is not that favorable for the Brazilian producer. The conilon harvest is in full swing and the state of Espírito Santo is experiencing a moment of frustration in production. "The market is very volatile and the producer is very frustrated with the coffee dryer. The harvest seen visually is not being confirmed, in addition to the fall of fruits in the fields", he states. According to the analyst, there are producers who expected a harvest of approximately 120 bags per hectare, but are expected to harvest between 50 and 60. At this moment, the sector is betting on a drop of between 15 and 20% in conilon crops in Espírito Santo.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago
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Nobody knows, the guy can be just very long :) :) :) and that explains his enthusiasm ! But USDA will calm down everybody today :).
Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 6 hours ago
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Viriato Magalhaes like they did on Friday?
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago
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More conspiracy, only today :), GloboRural: Largest roaster in Indonesia will buy conilon coffee from Brazil The company Kopi Kita will be the first to introduce the Brazilian variety of grain in the Asian country.
Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 6 hours ago
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Viriato Magalhaes why ih gas pkenty coffee available there? I think that exportation from Brasil is like shooting your own foot, we can import coffee, why we can export For the countries with problem?
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 5 hours ago
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Simple take on Kopi Kita would be: unlikely they would start it not being concerned about not just one but several MY :).
Josin Céntimos
Josin Céntimos 8 hours ago
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Great . Optimist.
Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 9 hours ago
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I woukd lije to hear about USDA strange report about Vietnam, so inconsistency, the sane time reports tgat coffee producer are migrating for other cultures as Durião and other because it is much more profitabe and also about tge clinate problems and the same the time says that will ve a lot of coffe to export but tgey will need import because pf the growing intrbsl comsuption
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 6 hours ago
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I was being a bit sarcastic. In anticipation of the new USDA report.
Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 5 hours ago
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ShortDude ShortDude i got it, sorry sometime english became complicated for non natives, kkkkkk
Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 5 hours ago
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Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria 4 hours ago
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Bruno, things may have been better in the Cerrado. I know many producers in the South of Minas Gerais who are having to replace the sieve screens on their machines with smaller ones.
Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 2 hours ago
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Rodrigo Faria here it is happnening too, my microregion is a exception
Robert Cunderlik
Robert Cunderlik 9 hours ago
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guys I have a question .. Do have someone from this forum the knowledge or a proven information who are the biggest and most influenced funds who control this market ? because I didn't find any proof source who big and strong are behind the coffee scene ? I mean not producers but speculators money management funds who are price dictators . thanks in advance
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 16 hours ago
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USDA report on Brazil comes out today at 3pm US ET.
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 12 hours ago
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Let's get ready for the next big numbers!
Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 9 hours ago
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Jun 01, 2024 11:02AM ET
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Short Dude. Interesting scenario. Previously, Vietnam officials have been talking about roughly 25.5mb - consider it 26mb, it brings it back to 11/12MY and implies R of 25mb or so. Complaints about ES drop are not stopping and some farmers are talking real big numbers for their farms, besides stating quality of the beans, including breaking in the dryer, etc. It is not possible to get clear now but if it will be more true than false :), we should start seeing export reflecting the facts like Brazilian post 23/24 harvest export started reflecting a good crop and Vietnam issues.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 7 hours ago
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MGom For ES and total conilon, reduction in May estimate vs Jan estimate: total May 16.707mb vs Jan 17.333mb, ES May 10.809mb vs 11.065mb - this is what I meant. Total May 2024 vs 2023 crop seen bigger - 16.707mb vs 16.167mb 2023, ES also seen bigger vs 2023: 10.809mb May 2024 vs 10.155mb final 2023. Thus, CONAB sees increase vs 2023 of 540kb and doesn't see any problem vs 2023 numbers.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 7 hours ago
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If USDA will follow CONAB, its number for R should be about 23mb.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 7 hours ago
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Recently from Cooxupe: Cooxupé sees an increase in Brazil's coffee harvest in 2025, newly harvested small beans in 2024. 25/26 is OFF crop for A, Brazil. If this crop is amazing, next should be smaller, at least a bit... What the point Cooxupe is making here ? :)
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago
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Conab, example, A: 2018/19 ON - 47.5mb, 2019/20 OFF - 34.3mb, 2020/21 ON - 48.7mb. Drought has started in 2020 and continued into 2021, confirmed by NASA :), etc. CONAB's numbers for 2021/22 OFF, A: Jan - 33.3mb, May - 33.6mb, Sep - 30.7mb (!), Dec - 31.4mb (final). Between May and Dec projection - reduction of 2,2mb or 6.5%. This reduction could be attributed to drought, unlikely anything else... Now, Conab 2022/23 ON, Jan - 38.78mb, May - 35.7mb, Sep - 32.4mb, Dec - 32.7mb, vs Would Be Good crop of 48.7mb it is 16mb reduction, out of which something was frost and something was drought. (It is good to remember that most evaluation re frost have been about 10% at the time :)) 2022/23 numbers show that Conab initial reduction on multiple frost and severe drought vs previous ON crop was 10mb, additional 6mb were added post harvest, in Sep. 2021 numbers also show very clear that Conab increased A in May vs Jan, but then dropped post harvest ! We're not there yet to know the truth :).
MGom MGom
MGom 5 hours ago
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Viriato, So what is written remains valid, the rest becomes speculation
sharp madoff
sharp madoff Jun 01, 2024 7:18AM ET
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monthly inv hns completed, weekly looks as a local reversal, watching mode, not selling btw
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude Jun 01, 2024 5:05AM ET
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In major grower Vietnam, the agricultural ministry says this season's output will fall 20 percent from the previous year, sending it to a four-year low. Clearly they do not have compatible narration with UDSA ;)
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude Jun 01, 2024 5:05AM ET
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Or maybe this is 20% from maximum potential which is 36mln bags and we are at USDA territory?
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Jun 01, 2024 5:05AM ET
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No, as you said, ministry operates previous year data for comparison. You see, the confusion is continuing :). Those, that questioned USDA raise for 22/23 :) based on offered explanation, now got confused even more and as the result, most likely will consider final numbers being in between what means lower than USDA projected. If at some point export will start reflecting it - even more so... Agriministry (in theory:)), like CONAB have to protect both sides of the industry so, unlikely they would threaten :) the market not being kinda :) sure that Vietnam will sell its coffee for current prices.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Jun 01, 2024 5:05AM ET
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Look at Brazilian amazing post harvest 23/24 export and look at ECF stocks (include ICE EU stocks) vs 2023, 2022, etc - you'll see that AMAZING export did not bring ECF stocks to where they were... Stocks to use ratio is very low indeed... What it says in a simple form ? It says that situation stays fragile still. Why amazing export was not able to build up the stocks ? There could be various reasons as other exports volume (Vietnam, Indonesia, etc), good consumption, etc... The volume of Brazilian export at current prices says very clear that importers do not hesitate to buy coffee :) whichever factors affects their comfort while doing this :) :) :). The facts that Vietnam and Indonesia started buying Brazilian coffee for real are very telling as that China became more active and somethings point to higher growth in China, etc...
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Jun 01, 2024 5:05AM ET
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Abecafe (El Salvador) reported that for April 15th the crop was 14.8% below vs April 15th 2023. CA producers suffered similar issues...
Robert Pungerl
Robert Pungerl Jun 01, 2024 12:45AM ET
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how low will it go?
 
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