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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
200.33
-1.12(-0.56%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Though not in the green :) but we got weekly close over 200 :).
Also worth noting: 1) how many contracts specs close on the move from 245 to 192 (basis June); 2) lots of pics of trees from different origins that circulate in the internet do not actually show very high degree of damage, not comparable with the pics that have been circulating after one of a kind :) drought in Brazil; 3) rains start coming to some areas and eventually all areas will get it, sooner or later. On the other side, 5% of could be :) :) :) (nobody knows !) reduction of all main origins without Brazil would make about 3mb. May will bring the first clarity to ALL !
a good weekly rejected down movement Candle ! Daily targets Up are: 213 and 228, 247 ...
No matter, up or down Must retest 212-215 area !!!
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center in a post on X wrote, “at least five earth-directed coronial mass ejection (CME) were observed and expected to arrive as early as midday Friday, May 10, 2024, and persist through Sunday May 12."
May mean the peak for current solar cycle 25 :).
Here we go, from cccmg.com.br : Coffee in Mexico: Drought hits the south of the country and producers expect a drop of up to 30%. In Mexico, the driest weather since January raises major concerns for the current cycle. According to information from the local press, many producers estimate a drop of up to 30%. The data is part of the report by the Union of Independent Coffee Producers of Mexico, which warned that the lack of rain is already putting at least 80% of coffee plantations at risk, especially those located in the south of the state.
Endless record heat in 100% of tropical countries. Over 100 countries broke their heat records in first 8 days of May (May vs May, absolute). Degree of anomaly is high. (W-guys say unprecedented...)
Citation: Mexico is living by far the worst heat wave in its history (of observations !!!). (It's a general comment, not related to farms areas, but it gives a sense of what's going on. Not in a way that everything will die (it will not!), but in a way that absence of growth or at least small reduction in production seems reasonable to assume...)
In more than dozen of states in Mexico temp of 45C and higher were recorded, somewhere it hit over 49C... Temp map of Mexico was impressive recently, including coffee producing states.
:) :) :) Maja posted re heat wave in Mexico just now. Info about high temps and dry spells :) is/was confirmed by the stations (as it goes for some time already), but who knows re specific areas where the farms are :) ? She is based in Mexico for years. She promised (on Twitter) to make a trip to inspect few locations herself about now. USDA should post Mexico report in May/June. We'll see the diff :) :) :) !
Couldn't resist and checked GAIN calendar. Following reports scheduled for May 2024: India (out), Philippines, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Tanzania, Uganda, Vietnam, Honduras. Somehow I was not paying close attention to Peru and Honduras, all other mentioned origins had some weather issues. If GAIN will really make it all in May :), clarity will be out before first frost fear . :)
Re Maja and Mexico. One of the picture Maja posted in relation to drought in Mexico is a pic from the article in local media, dated April 25th. Mexico was having dry spells/high temps for a while...
El Salvador produced 3 million bags 20 years ago. Since then it has been going downhill. Truly pathetic lack of Ministry of Agriculture support. In the last 5 years, 5 ministers.
Agriculture support???We have global problems (how a human being could do something about)
Opening GAP closed - could very well turn out to be support and rebound level.
Yesterday closed at 197,55
From Maja, is this really true? World #coffee production is stagnated except for handful of origins causing growing BIG trouble to #KC with ICO stats confirming; Ivory Coast, from 6.32M to 1.9M - Angola, from 5M to 52K bags - Colombia, from 18M to 10.5M - Mexico, from 6.2M to 4M - El Salvador, from 3M to 600K - Costa Rica, from 3M bags to 1.4M - Thailand, from 1.7M to 500K - Cameroon, from 1.7M to 268K - Ecuador, from 2.4M Bags to 550K - Guatemala, from 5.1M to 3.4M - Congo, Dem Rep, from 1.6M to 350K - Kenya, from 1.7M to 650K
Finally USDA
USDA is most followed and I'm not a lone ranger :). But USDA does not hesitate to make serious revisions years back (was doing always) what points to the fact that their methodology is not 100% perfect (nobody's is :)) and in some cases to some extent may be questionable, or let's say may be :) viewed with a possible rate of mistake. Part of their mandate is do not blow up the markets, so it is very understandable...
MGom. If you wouldn't mind to comment, what your sources are saying re possible drop in ES ?
Friday 180 ?
?????
lol
why?
Someone took some coffee from ICE ;)
This is what Rodrigo and previously several times Oscar were referring to... 6% infestation is a high index value, 6% correlates well with previous strong El Nino, nothing devastating and out of the range. So, it turns out, Oscar was not kidding :) :) :)...
From Cenicafe: Colombia is preparing for an attempt to recover Arabica production, but some problems still pose challenges for the country ahead. According to data released by the National Coffee Research Center (Cenicafé), the work shows a worrying borer infestation. The problem began to be observed in January this year. According to the data, the percentage of drill bits is above 2% in all production areas, with the exception of Quindío and Nariño. According to the local press, the National Coffee Federation even issued an alert for urgent action in the most affected areas, with levels exceeding 5%.
Viriato, borer damage of 2% is very low. In Central America, way higher, up to 20%. Total lack of control.
ICO report (covering March), open sources: 1) Global green bean exports in March 2024 totalled 11.87 million bags, as compared with 10.85 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 9.4%. As a result, the cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 to March is 62.64 million bags, as compared with 56.36 million bags over the same period a year ago, up 11.1%. The Brazilian Naturals and Robustas were the two main groups responsible for the overall strong growth observed in March 2024, together accounting for 91.5% of the 1.02-million-bag net gain in total exports. This further consolidated their already-dominant positions, increasing their combined share of the total exports to 72.5% in March 2024 as compared to 70.8% in March 2023. For the year to date, the combined share is an even higher 73.4%.
By USDA world coffee consumption in 2014 was roughly 142mb. By USDA world coffee consumption in 2023 was roughly 170mb, it would be in 2024 172mb-173mb, what gives 30mb or 3mb average annual increase in global consumption considered by ... USDA. Well, long term trends are often stubborn things :) :) :).
Brazil saves the world.
So whats the price prediction you mates have
Good opportunities to make long positions it seems.
Wait for Friday
lol
Ostrich flight ?
is it possible to see the prices goes to 180 in coming days?
Rather focus on 150 next week, in 15 days max
only stoch might look that way, others solo or combined are opposite, i take the bet mate, whats the deal then? xD
I think so
If hold above 194 better buy, damaged in Vietman is already made, it may rain a lot know it will not change nothing, here in Brazil new crop is getting in the market with smal amount of screan 17/18 it may show a break in the numbers
Observing couple of farms in Vietnam during her trip, Judy Ganes said that in relation to the level of infestation, she's more concerned with the bug than upcoming rain :).
Drought aside: Conilon coffee plants did not present damage to the photochemical apparatus until they were exposed to 30-37ºC in the long term (Rodrigues et al., 2016b), mainly due to the increase of enzymatic and non-enzymatic antioxidant compounds and by means of protein activity (Martins et al., 2016). On the other hand, it was observed by DaMatta et al., (2012, 2018) that high temperatures can compromise both the fruit set and development, which can result in premature ripening, etc. Every farm is different but the tree is still the tree.
Rodrigo, some African origins do not really use ferts and chemicals :). They manage it somehow and even grow production, but imagine, if some real attack (of a scale or new variety) will happen one day ?
is the 150 in 15 days bet still alive?
Sam Houston, the self claimed guru started getting long at 195...soon he will cry
You're stupid, where were you at 240
what did I self claim? I longed KC at 195? maybe ur confused?
Rain, rain and rain....anywhere with coffee plants, always miraculous
Higher mealybug infestation is one of indicators. 200 level is very important level from many standpoints and consolidation around it is/would be nothing strange. What should/may bring the market down to 100 besides some political/etc issues ? News about record global crop and big stocks at the destinations. It is more than hard :) to see a record global crop in current circumstances... And if to rely on GSM progression, the way it was known from the last similar cycle, it just started, main weather issues should be ahead... Average size of coffee farm in Vietnam is about 2ha, those farms still influence main production. Different management and approach vs 200ha Brazilian irrigated mechanized farm.
Yesterday it was +39C in Bangalore, wave continues through Oceania and Asia, etc. Porto Alegre recently recorded 33.3C, it was second highest for May within last 115 years or so... Porto Alegre is not about coffee but it underlines the degree of anomalies... Anomalies everywhere and always mean only one thing: higher potential risk, not lower :). CA, Mexico, etc... Whatever way the one looks at the stations data, it is not like big damage is seen, but hardly a higher production or record crop :). USDA last report on India, in my view, was a good example. India is 5th R producer. A was conservatively considered :) being less immune to the stress. :) Also, the one should not fool himself: lots of origins are not that advances in terms of cultivars (resistance, yield ) as Brazil is, not yet :) :) :).
The trade is based on the fact that if not in this year but then in next Brazil will always save the market somehow. We'll see :) :) :) if this concept works no matter what or not so in current cycle :) :) :).
reversal day
im so short!!
Tomorrow another -5% any opinion ?
Viriato, SL may unfortunately be needed tomorrow.
I am fearful and always have SL in place. I got stopped out of my 1/4 with a minor loss and rebuilt at 195. I was fine on the way up but closed the balance around at 230 as stoch produced a signal (for me:)) so, I just observed the drop, the drop was obvious as the attempt to retest 200 level. It may go lower for sure - nobody knows... On 1h stoch is gonna make 4th :) buy signal and on daily it is really really oversold. In the end of today's session some real volume was trading but produced little move. My zone currently is 190 - 195. Reversal or bounce - remains to be seen, but even bounce can surprise !!!
The fact that Vietnam got rains will unlikely provide increase in production. While dealing with the drought it is normal, that real damage can be evaluated post harvest so, we have to pay attention to the reports and see if any increase will be shown. In current situation NO increase is not as bad as reduction for sure, but it is still bad. 50% of the market are specs so, it's fine that they liquidate when indicators say doing that. For myself, I assume that if I see it correctly (can be wrong) they will buy back with the same speed or even faster.
who got burnt past 3 weeks? be honest. the forum was all bulls and cheerleaders (i.e. farmers)
The project appears to be dead.
dead I'm terms of price chart. but very alive in terms of development. they have the technology, the community, need users to start climbing now
I have always been skeptical of reports of extraordinary activity by ADA developers. The difficult software language plus slow development say otherwise.
who.got rekt in past 2 or 3 weeks? be honest. forum was all bulls and cheerleaders (ie. farmers)
mission accomplished, loading
If to consider global consumption being about 170mb in 2020 and to consider annual growth of 1.5%, then 2021+22+23+24 roughly 2.5mb/y x 4y = 10mb :). By USDA, in 2020/21 (BRL last record crop) world consumption was roughly 165mb, production - 175mb. And from WM&T report at the time, reflecting drought impact on A in Brazil: Brazil production is forecast down 13.6 million bags to 56.3 million compared to the previous year. Arabica output is forecast to drop 14.7 million bags to 35.0 million due to lower yields from the off‐year, drought, and high temperatures. The Robusta harvest is forecast to continue expanding to reach a record 21.3 million bags, up 1.1 million. Despite lower output, consumption is expected to continue rising to a record 23.7 million bags.
Make the OFF responsible for 15/20 percent and remaining 10/15 percent falls on drought and high temps. Just to underline, that 5-10% reduction, based on real drought and high temps is nothing out of the range... And note, already in 20/21 domestic consumption in Brazil was projected almost reaching 24mb ! Thus, 23 - 24mb number for Brazil for a current/next year should not be viewed as a shocking. Unlikely people stopped drinking coffee in Brazil :)...
A lot of new bags on ICE, backwardation will disappear.
please answer me arebica price increase in this month....??
change diler
Ok
Ok
USDA posted India annual report. No drop/increase for 24/25 MY projected, roughly, R = 4.6mb vs 4.6mb MY23/24, A = 1.4 vs 1.4mb MY23/24. USDA projected rise in consumption roughly 2% :) and admitted that R yield is expected to drop about 2% and A yield - about 3%, R area to increase 1%. USDA: With the severity of high temperatures and absence of blossom showers, coffee output and yield during the next crop year is likely to be negatively affected. The blossom showers and backing rains are the most critical aspects that govern flowering and productivity in coffee.
Simple take of the report: 1) No increase on rising consumption; 2) real weather issues admitted; 3) assuming India domestic roughly 1.5mb, 2% increase is 30kb; 4) Currently projected reduction in production - 135mb; 5) -135 - 30 = -165mb. Also: 1) as it was seen when Brazil had drought 20/21, it is hard to give meaningful figures before the harvest, as not just quantity but size of the beans matters; 2) Before the harvest nobody projected for Brazil the drop it suffered (was stated:)) because of the last drought, being of the size, that was finally considered post harvest :); 3) from 2% to 5 - 10% the distance is not big, 5% of 6mb = 300kb, 10% - 600kb. To summarize: USDA currently projects that it's gonna be no bigger production vs previous MY and some reduction is expected. Is it positive for R ? :) (A is in decline in India for years...)
AA
I don't believe superficial reports on consumption increasing when the two biggest dogs in the yard, starbucks and lavazza, have already stated per cup consumption is down considerably. Segafredo who is also a big player is also selling and is looking to finalize that sale by the end of the year. That right there is pointing to a consumption decline. Big companies don't just come out and say things like this unless there are actual problems.
buying some, mainly just to have it in a wallet
...
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