US Small Cap 2000 (RUT)

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Tomorrow may end up being more of a choppy sideways day than down, given large caps projected to move higher tomorrow. (SPX probably a catchup trade tomorrow, given RUT's outperformance today.), Monday might be similar modest move either way, but Tuesday-Wed. still clearly downside action on daily chart. Pay attention to TLT; it's in an uptrend, but daily says we see selling tomorrow; WaveTech indicates the next best time to buy TLT long is around tomorrow, or if jobs report is bullish, then probably delayed to next week. It seems weird to me though that yields would fall next week into mid May while SPX would too, and then both rise in second half. So either one's wrong, or there's an explanation that's not obvious.

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Timothy Technography 10 hours ago

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Around 10 AM EST, and I've added to my June 19 IWM $88-strike put even though there are contradictory indications that price could and probably will go higher today; I just can't figure out when and so planning ahead to move on with my work day tasks. Per yesterday's post, I exited my IWM calls yesterday just after 3pm, so timed that pretty well--because there's downside coming, but only partly clear as to when most likely. The 3-hour (half-day) WaveTech chart says decline begins this afternoon, and the 2-hour (120-min. interval) looks similar but less clear whether decline begins by early afternoon or closer to close, and the daily RUT chart indicators shows 2 momentum metrics ever so slightly down today while the stronger PPM-1 is steeply up. So I'm guessing it's a green day mostly but selling into the close like yesterday, which is the decline that probably triggers deeper selling ahead. More importantly than today, daily RUT points lower Friday through Wednesday, May 8, overall, with a small bounce early next week, looking like Mon. The 3-hour chart also shows bearish tomorrow, but the bounce is projected Mon.-Tues., with downside over second half of next week, but keep in mind 3-hour not that reliable a week out, only 2-3 days at best usually (unless confirmed by other interval charts). Back to daily RUT, it also shows some weakness around next weekend like 3-hour chart but not much for RUT, but it is for SPX, with daily SPX chart indicating a test of April low between May 7-14, and I'm guessing it's around next weekend. The structure of 3 momentum daily charts hint it could be a new low but with higher momentum overall, called positive divergence, or a higher low on both price and momentum, either of which signal to well informed traders to buy the dip and anticipate a relief rally. The weekly charts of SPX and RUT aren't really bullish over second half of May and June overall, a bit up and down, but the daily are more bullish. And some more advanced technical analysts than me think the domestic stock market still has more steam ahead, so I'm inclined to expect a rally after mid May, maybe a week earlier for Russell, especially since the more powerful monthly chart of SPX indicates May and June close higher than prior month's close. (Not enough RUT monthly closes to produce such forecast, as needs 150 data points unless I reset config setting).

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Timothy Technography 10 hours ago

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One last thing, the way I manage the uncertainty as to when the reversal happens from up to down this week, is to buy part of my short position (IWM put option) around 10 so as not to miss entry, but then buy another lot of same size at a significantly lower price if index keeps rising today, as some charts, especially 2-hour chart, indicate will happen. That way I have some insurance, probably overpriced, and can add cheaper hedge if RUT/IWM keeps rising today. So, scaling into my hedge.

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Christopher Cooper May 01, 2024 5:20AM ET

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What’s WaveTech have to say about the Hang Seng? Is it finally on it’s way up after about 5 years of a beating?

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Timothy Technography May 01, 2024 5:20AM ET

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Hi CC. I'm glad you asked b/c I might buy. What's a liquid ETF? I typed in Heng Seng under Index tab of WaveTech, and it gave me chart of ticker 'HSI'. There's not enough data to show a reliable monthly chart. (I can adjust configuration to get an idea, but I did that weeks ago for some newer stock, forgot to reset the config afterwards, and screwed up forecasts for over a week, so not doing it again unless I can concentrate and switch back right away.) Anyway, the weekly chart shows an uptrend into early July, and it's a nice uptrend, but keep in mind only the first few to several tick marks (weeks) are more reliable. The low of momentum on weekly chart for HSI was around the second half of January, so while we've missed the best entry, there's plenty more upside. LMK an ETF. Meanwhile, I'll check what Stansberry Research says about Chinese ETFs and stocks, now that you brought this to my attention.

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Timothy Technography May 01, 2024 5:20AM ET

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FXI and YINN seem good ways to play Heng Seng. Keep in mind WaveTech can't forecast what President XI will do to destroy market wealth, as he's done before, but geopolitical risk is always uncertain and exists.

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Christopher Cooper May 01, 2024 5:20AM ET

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Timothy Technography thanks

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Christopher Cooper 16 hours ago

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YINN is up 9% in pre market, but I’m putting 5% of my net worth in it today anyway.

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Christopher Cooper 10 hours ago

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Bought some YINN, but only 2% of my portfolio. Will move up to 5% over the next few days

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Timothy Technography Apr 29, 2024 11:31AM ET

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As I mentioned on Friday, WaveTech daily chart indicated a rally on stocks and bond market starting last Friday or today, and it began after early Friday session selling was bought by short covering and dip buyers. WaveTech daily indicates the 10-day moving avg. continues higher into June, and the weekly PPM indicators suggest at least a few weeks higher overall. However, daily PPM and 10-DMA still indicate weakness in first half of next week, climaxing near May 8, with decent probability the decline starts as soon as this Thursday, albeit mildly before next week. So you can ride it out or trade both directions, but it is often risky trading the last wave of a wave heading counter to the new trend. Meaning, shorting the consolidation and final test of downside next week is risky.

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Christopher Cooper Apr 29, 2024 11:31AM ET

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Wave Tech wrong again

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Christopher Cooper Apr 29, 2024 11:31AM ET

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Amazon to the rescue

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Timothy Technography Apr 29, 2024 11:31AM ET

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No, Chris. I gave you the overall trend and where there's weakness, and that 10-day MA is moving higher for weeks. I didn't provide intraday or day to day ups and downs b/c those are harder for me to identify with confidence. Daily charts did indicate a strong Monday and Wednesday (today), which happened, and drop on Tuesday (which happened, although worse than I expected).

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Christopher Cooper 16 hours ago

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Timothy Technography for Small Cap only, but I understand your point.

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Christopher Cooper 16 hours ago

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Christopher Cooper meaning NASDAQ and S&P were down yesterday

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Christopher Cooper Apr 29, 2024 10:26AM ET

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2/3 TQQQ, 1/3 TNA. Ready for Amazon tomorrow 👍

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Kalpesh Patel Apr 29, 2024 2:34AM ET

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koib

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Amir Haidar Apr 27, 2024 9:23AM ET

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Amir. Haidar

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Shakil Khan Apr 27, 2024 9:23AM ET

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3000

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Daniel Lweeba Apr 26, 2024 3:52PM ET

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I want to make money online

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Investing Whore Apr 26, 2024 3:01PM ET

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FED should really start cutting the rates on May without asking anyone… It is time… The later they cut, the worst it will get… Big Stock markets are already high, nothing is going to happen if they start now…

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Timothy Technography Apr 26, 2024 2:46PM ET

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I don't have time to elaborate further, due to work, but WaveTech is finally looking positive for Russell 2000. Daily chart warned for past couple weeks that there'd be a downtick yesterday, 4/25, and more weakness into V-E Day, 5/8, but today was supposed to begin a reversal, which is stronger than I would have expected regardless of 8:30 inflation report, and this relief rally looks to top briefly around May Day, consolidate through 5/8, and from there we'll have to see if the forecast has changed, but the weekly RUT WaveTech momentum indicates rally continues through end of spring, probably July, before another long consolidation retreat like we appear to be finishing between this week and 2nd week of May. WaveTech Fibonacci projection suggests (doesn't say how probable yet) an upside target on the weekly chart that seems ridiculously high. Instead, I'll share the more believable number, which is 10-week moving avg. to near 2100 around Independence Day. To get a 10-WMA up there, the intraday high must be much much higher. WaveTech can change its projections based on new facts (data), but we got bad data, and the algos can pick up on the calculus under the hood and sees buying despite fear, which tends to lead to FOMO rally. Good luck. I exited most of my IWM puts this morning, and exit the rest early next week, while holding large IWM call position into EOM if not July. And I moved my 401k funds from 55% stable funds--per my warning here in March of this decline that appeared to be consolidation, but too soon to be sure that's all it is--so that by this weekend, all but 18% is in equity or bond funds. (TLT and other Treasuries have probably bottomed out yesterday, so I sold my TLT puts at 45% gain yesterday, one of my two largest positions this week, but volatility doesn't improve until after 5/3.)

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