US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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All those who rejoice at the optimistic USDA reports, which mention records or harvests close to the records of '20, forget that for 4 years consumption has grown by 15million bags. That is, even if the USDA reports were true, it doesn't mean anything extraordinary and the market is still tight with very low stocks. Now what happens when the USDA has to be revised downward. As VOLCAFE is showing today!

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Your Futuure 33 minutes ago

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Hope all chock on coffee

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ShortDude 1 hour ago

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Mgom, I hope you didn't take my advice too seriously and put your farm on a price drop bet?

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MGom 1 hour ago

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Maybe it would be interesting to wait for winter to pass before selling it for higher prices.

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Josin Céntimos 4 hours ago

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229 // 231 // 233 // 237 ? Soon.

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ShortDude 10 hours ago

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New Volcafe report about 24/25 Vietnam crop gives only 24m bags and very low carry over stocks. USDA about Brazil with no records. Let’s see how market will digest this info :)

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MGom 6 hours ago

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The USDA's global balance sheet is complete.

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MGom 13 hours ago

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Brazil 69.9 million bags. ShortDude, do you advise selling the other farm?

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Viriato Magalhaes 3 hours ago

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Current situation in Brazil seems to be :) very clear: 1) USDA refused to show the records on total production, and on A, on R basis for MY 24/25 - it was noted; 2) rumors re R and A issues in Brazil are not about 2% - much more, so the outcome will become clear in 1 - 2 months; 3) if issues will get confirmed - all will be automatically extrapolated onto other origins, that suffered similar stress, those will be SE Asia, India, CA, Mexico, Caribbean Islands, Oceania, Ivory Coast, Ghana, etc; 4) if issues will get confirmed - consequences will be assumed to some extent for 25/26 as science says and as it was the case with 2021 drought; 5) 25/26 comes as OFF crop for Brazil, what implies on existing/known basis that on 48.7mb of ON 24/25 the OFF season 25/26 should produce between 36mb (big damage 24/25) and 42mb (no damage 24/25), average would be about 40mb - 9mb below 24/25 A production, assuming ONLY A (R may add fire too); 6) other affected origins should show some 25/26 reduction as well - science works equally for all; 7) cumulative effect will be big.

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Viriato Magalhaes 3 hours ago

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But there is much more to it: 1) by some w-guys, the way the transition El Nino - La Nina currently goes points to a strong La Nina :); 2) if current temp anomalies are marking the peak of Solar cycle 25 (as it seems), next phase is cooling and as GSM cycle progresses, cooling may start in aggressive manner what may influence a lot many local weather patterns, make La Nina even more stronger, etc - may be not good for many origins :), Brazil including; 3) some shifts in infestation/fungus attacks have been confirmed for some origins, Brazil including - higher indexes, not common pests, etc - it correlates with weather anomalies and decreased resistance of the trees because of the same anomalies, the situation may, and has a real chance to get worse in 25/26, especially assuming strong La Nina and not just for Brazil and with much bigger effect on other origins as it always was the case.

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Viriato Magalhaes 3 hours ago

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If, to the contrary, all rumors about Brazil and other origins are bluff and conspiracy, 40/42mb of A in 25/26 is what should be expected on flat production in other origins as temps/dry spells have been/still are hard facts, which facts science apply in well defined and proven way. In this case :) :) :) the situation will stay very fragile and focus will be on 26/27 crop. Science based, this scenario physically seems to be impossible but paper wise - why not ? It will be seen soon.

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Viriato Magalhaes 2 hours ago

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If A quality issues will be proven big, ICE A will get more motivated as that low quality A will go other channels and will reduce ICE inflow. ICE A is catching up with R now, charts wise it is actually unique, A at some point should catch up, that points to 300 - 340 segment for A... Stoch on weekly in March produced buy signal at rare level, secondary signal was produced in May at same level, it is a rare occurrence indeed and the signal remains active. Stoch on monthly is trying to produce a buy signal and ... to move into overbought territory - main spikes happen while stoch is in that territory, 100 - 150 points, that would bring KC to its logical 340 level or so... I may be dead wrong :), but in my view personal view, coffee stars :) are thinking to align... :) :) :)

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Viriato Magalhaes 2 hours ago

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in my very very personal view ***** :)

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Viriato Magalhaes 16 hours ago

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Short Dude. If they would show productive trees as always, we could compare quantity of productive trees vs 18/19 and 20/21 and also average yield per tree - we would see if 24/25 69.9mb crop is estimated on smaller, same or bigger quantity of productive trees vs 18/18 and 20/21. Within normal rate of mistake A = 48.2mb is the same as 49.7mb as it was in both 18/19 and 20/21 MY. (R was 16.8mb in 18/18 and 20.2mb in 20/21, 20.2 and 21.7 also are within same rate of mistake of 10%.) My point and you may laugh or you may not, but: 20/21 record A+R was 49.7+20.2=69.9mb, 24/25 was projected 69.9mb. USDA could show 70.9mb for example, but it didn't... :) for some reason... Now, 19/20 OFF for A was shown by USDA as 42mb no issues were detected, normal ON-OFF transition assuming record 18/19), but 21/22 was shown as 36.4mb.

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Viriato Magalhaes 16 hours ago

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The one may chose for himself which number he likes more or in between :) for 25/26 OFF A crop, but simple approach suggests that analogy with 21/22 would be more correct as real problems affected A in 23/24. Now look at global production vs consumption in a simple manner: 25/26 consumption will add another 3mb but production only on OFF Brazil should be lower for 6 - 10mb (between 36 and 42mb). Besides, if heat issue was applicable to mighty Brazil what's gonna happen to CA and M combined, producing about 20mb ? What's about Vietnam ? Just get flat numbers for global R , 42mb A Brazil :), -5 - 10% remaining A (combined) - what you'll see ? But if OFF Brazil A will be 38mb ? :) And do not forget: as problems have been admitted, the reduction for 23/24 may follow later :). It will be reflected by the export for sure, if problem(s) will be of a scale... And pay close attention to pest/fungus indexes/news. :)

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Viriato Magalhaes 16 hours ago

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Not agitating or trying to influence anybody to get long, short or whatever - just my very personal point view :) :) :). Tomorrow will be interesting day indeed.

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Viriato Magalhaes 15 hours ago

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Brazilian coffee has about 50% market share in China currently. :)

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ShortDude 18 hours ago

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Judy Ganes: Tally time on the USDA FAS attache coffee reports: based on all released data, 2024/25 world coffee output could reach a new record of 176.878 million bags surpassing 2020/21 record of 176.584 million and 7.371 million above last season, if unreported countries are unchanged.

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Rain 18 hours ago

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$360 otw

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Viriato Magalhaes 21 hours ago

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Total production: 69.9mb, R - 21.7mb, A - 48.2mb. Thus: 1) A record was not repeated; 2) R problems were admitted; 3) 2020 A+R record was not repeated.

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Viriato Magalhaes 17 hours ago

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In my view and basing on science - it can't :), but many have been expecting 74 - 78mb... Whatever it was - USDA didn't make it...

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Viriato Magalhaes 17 hours ago

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USDA: 1) Initial reports from producers consulted by Post indicate low yields and small beans, primarily due to the rains that affected crop development at the end of 2023. However, this result is typically anticipated with earlier harvested trees, and an increase in yield and in the quality of the fruits should improve as harvesting progresses. Minas Gerais is the country’s leading coffee producer, followed by Espírito Santo, São Paulo, Bahia, and Rondônia. 2) The likely arrival of the La Niña phenomenon towards the end of the second quarter is causing concern among producers consulted by Post, with warnings about possible climate risks that could greatly impact coffee harvests. Forecasts indicate that the potential impact could affect coffee farms in Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, Colombia, and Guatemala. In Brazil, the La Niña is expected to bring lower temperatures and the risk of frost, increasing concerns for coffee growers, especially in the Southeast of the country. In recent years, La Niña has been active during key phases of crop development, resulting in significant yield reductions. 3) In the 2024 harvest, various regions in the state experienced periods of high temperatures and heavy rains in critical moments, which resulted in many plants having fruits at different stages of development and pellets in very inconsistent sizes. As a result, many producers advanced their reaping due to the lack of uniformity in fruit maturation and the quality of the grains. Some crops were also affected by coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), which required more maintenance. Nevertheless, from December 2023 onwards, rains began to occur again in sufficient volumes to promote the recovery of most crops, ultimately resulting in good vegetative and phytosanitary conditions. This recovery, aligned with an expected increase in area production has led to a slightly larger production of arabica coffee for the largest arabica coffee-producing state.

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Viriato Magalhaes 17 hours ago

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4) Espírito Santo: The largest conilon coffee producing state in Brazil experienced drought and high temperatures between October and December 2023, which affected the productive potential of the beans. Producers consulted by Post reported concerns about the average productivity and quality of the fruits to be harvested, although the harvest is still in its early stages. However, the arrival of rains at the beginning of 2024 appears to have been sufficient to guarantee the development of the crops and should result in a larger harvest than in 2023, though far from the initial estimate of the season. The shortage of labor has contributed to the acceleration of mechanization in the fields. Furthermore, the state has been focusing on the sustainability of the Espírito Santo coffee chain, with an eye on increasing conilon exports to the world. The state’s Institute of Research, Technical Assistance and Rural Extension (INCAPER) estimates that Espirito Santo should produce 11 million bags of conilon coffee. About 75 percent of the conilon crops is in the North of the state, with harvesting starting in May and following until August.

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Viriato Magalhaes 17 hours ago

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Point 3) was about MG ***

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Viriato Magalhaes 17 hours ago

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High temperatures and their effect was admitted. :)

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