I went back to my Outlook 2023 written in December 2022 where I begin with:
You Can’t Run with the Hare and Hunt with the Hounds.
This expression will ultimately summarize the upcoming year.
As the Year of the Tiger loses its roar, the Year of the Rabbit hops into view.
For 2023, one word and two expressions keep coming up:
Chaos,
Trying to fit a square peg into a round hole,
Looking for Inflation in All the Wrong Places
My readers know we have been buyers of dips in oil and gold.
And that got us wondering about Bitcoin.
The next to the last page of the Outlook, we call Bitcoin “The Family’s Adolescent”.
More:
“As the one who is still trying to figure out who it wants to be in relation to the economies domestically and abroad, we love how predictable the chart looks.
A monthly breakdown under $15,950, could lead bitcoin to lose half its value.
As December 2022 is turning into an inside month) price trading within the trading range of November, a move over $21.500 could catch many bears off guard.”
With the outperformance versus the SPY in September, while currently slightly underperforming, what’s next for our adolescent?
Here are some of the recent headlines about Cryptocurrencies, specifically Bitcoin.
Prince Filip of Serbia Bitcoin is an “open secure protocol akin to the internet”.
Ark Invest Research forecast $1.48 million bull case for Bitcoin
Deadline for the SEC to hear Grayscales’ appeal for a spot Bitcoin ETF
President of Madiera welcomes Bitcoin
Paul Tudor Jones “Bitcoin should “probably take on a larger percentage of your portfolio
We find the 2 most interesting headlines are those of Cathie Wood and PTJ.
Both bulls, one with a great track record and one with a horrific one.
So, could they both be wrong?
The chart of BTC/USD dissected:
- Price sits on the 50-day moving average (blue line).
- The Phase is Distribution.
- The price is well under the July 6-month calendar range low.
- In Leadership, it underperforms the SPY.
- In Momentum, it is slightly below the 50-DMA for a teeny bearish divergence to price.
$26,500 is the support to hold to see higher levels. Ideally, a close over 28,000 sets up the bulls the best.
With three peak lows: January 2023, March 2023, and September 2023, Bitcoin is making higher lows.
However, until momentum improves and BTC/USD begins to outperform the SPY, we are more neutral than bullish or bearish.
We do like Friday the 13th’s action, so do not lose track.
ETF Summary
- S&P 500 (SPY) 435 resistance 429 support
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 177 resistance 170 KEY support
- Dow (DIA) 338 resistance 332 support
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 368 pivotal 363 support
- Regional banks (KRE) 39.80 -42.00 range
- Semiconductors (SMH) 150 resistance 143 support
- Transportation (IYT) 237 resistance 225 support
- Biotechnology (IBB) 120-125 range
- Retail (XRT) 57 key support if can climb over 61, bullish